The International Council of Shopping Centers estimates nationwide retail store closures will total 144,000 in 2007, a 7 percent increase from 2006.  Although this a large number, in 2006 123,000 new stores opened and 139,000 closed.  New store opening have helped soften the effects of nationwide store closures.

There is no arguing that retail is presently a troubled sector with consumer confidence dropping and consumer disposable spending in negative double digits for 50 straight weeks.  The confidence confidence index serves as an important bellwether of consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the U.S. economy and an essential economic driver for the retail sector.

Nationwide retail properties reported a vacancy rate of 7.8 percent in the Reis Inc. second quarter 2008 survey.  Locally we have seen a number of store closures, but nothing close to other troubled markets around the United States.  Starbucks recently posted the final list of approximately 600 company-operated stores in 45 states scheduled to close beginning this month through next March.  Our MSA has only one store scheduled for closure, the Starbucks located off Market and Garland in Spokane.

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Google has created a powerful tool called Google Trends that enables consumers to chronologically view search & news activity for popular terms. Below is a chart of the term “Commercial Real Estate“.

Commercial Real Estate Google Trends

What does this tell us? If you look closely you will notice a spike in activity at the end of each calendar year and at the end of each fiscal year. These periods are historically busy months for commercial real estate brokerage, especially for 1031 exchanges. To try out different terms visit www.google.com/trends

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